Who Can Bridge The Rural, Urban & Ethnic Political Divide In Pakistan?

By Sikander Hayat

Pakistan faces a distinct lack of a party which has a universal appeal in all parts of the country and which contest elections on issues not the ethnicity. Pakistan Peoples Party played this role for many years but due to rampant corruption by its rank & file and bad governance, its popularity is now limited to rural Sindh. 2013 elections will signal the way party goes in terms of its universal popularity but the current trends show that a heavy election defeat is on the cards for the party which will limit it to the rural areas of Sindh with some possible seats in South Punjab. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf has the potential to replace PPP as the party of all six provinces but until the electoral process proves this, we have to stick to the make up of the current parliament.

Text books might not agree but Pakistan currently has six provinces & two federal areas:

1. Punjab
2. Sindh
3. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
4. Baluchistan
5. Gilgit Baltistan
6. Azad Kashmir
7. Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
8. Islamabad ( Federal Capital Territory)

 

All these provinces show that there is two forces at work in Pakistani politics:

1. Urban & rural political divide
2. Politics bases on ethnic origin

Parliament shows that Pakistan has turned into two political blocks, the rural Pakistan& the urban Pakistan with its political map as follows:

1. Urban Punjab is a strong hold of PML (N)

2. Rural Punjab is controlled by PPP& PML (Q)

3. Urban Sindh, especially Karachi & Hyderabad have been conquered by MQM (MQM conducts its politics on the basis of Muhajir ethnicity and have been implicated in many murders & other acts of criminal violence in Karachi)

4. Rural Sindh is the bastion of PPP

5. Urban Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is dominated by ANP/ PPP

6. Rural Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is under the influence of various religious parties

 

7. Baluchistan’s situation is a little different as it votes on the basis of one tribal chief against the other thus resulting in a different outcome in every general election with the same faces getting elected through different parties.

8. Gilgit Baltistan (the newest province of Pakistan) has voted for PPP in the last provincial assembly elections and the current Chief Minister of Gilgit Baltistan belongs to Pakistan Peoples Party.

9. Azad Kashmir follows the national trend and whoever is in power in the federal assembly usually forms government in the capital Muzzafarabad.

10. Federal territory of Islamabad usually votes for PML (N)

 

11. Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are not yet designated as a province, as the name suggests. FATA does send members to the national parliament and recently people have been allowed to contest elections on the party political basis. The trend will start emerging after next few elections.

It is very interesting to see this divide as it clearly shows that urban populations vote on the basis of issues ( apart from Karachi, where MQM has conducted politics on the basis of Muhajir ethnicity) whereas the rural politics have deep seated tribal bias which surfaces at the time of every election. There are number of reasons why that happens but the most important ones are as follows:

1. Urban populations in Pakistan tend to be more educated than their rural counterparts. It is only relative but still matters when it comes to awareness of political & constitutional issues.

 

2. In rural areas of Pakistan, one tribe or clan dominates a certain geographical area, so at election time only a member of that clan could get into the parliament where as urban areas tend to be cosmopolitan in nature and party affiliation is more important.

3. Courts in Urban areas have relatively better chance of dispensation of justice whereas rural areas courts are dominated by nepotism and clannish behaviour.

4. Urban areas tend to be more apposed to a military takeover while rural populations remain ambivalent to any change in the political structure of the country. This started from the colonial times when the British gave land to powerful tribes in Punjab & Sindh to buy their loyalty and made the feudal lords their agents in the respective areas to control the local populations. This is exactly what military governments do and they have been very successful in keeping the rural areas quite whereas this same strategy never works in urban areas of Pakistan.

5. Pakistan media is increasingly playing an important role in educating the masses and those people who have never been to a place of education, who cannot read or write; television with its dozens of news & current affair channels is an essential educational tool.

 

It is possible in the future that with free media and internet reaching rural areas of Pakistan, the country can begin to form a united voice and start voting on the basis of issues rather than tribal loyalty. It will definitely take many years and few elections conducted on a 5 yearly basis to transform the landscape but things are definitely changing. The rise of parties like Tehreek-e-Insaaf is a good indicator of changing times but a bigger indicator would be if it can win the upcoming general elections. Only time will tell.

 

 

Related Posts:

 

1. Gwadar - Jewel Of Balochistan & Pakistan

 

2.Pakistan Army Must Not Intervene In The Current Crisis - Who To Blame For the Present Crisis in Pakistan ?

 

3. Why Balochistan is Not East Pakistan?

 

4.  Are Balochis Becoming A Minority In Balochistan?

 

What Is The Future Of Afghanistan Pakistan Relations?

After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan opened its borders and at least 5 million Afghans moves to Pakistan. Most of these people still live in Pakistan and social structure of the country has been greatly altered with the arrival of Afghan refugees as Pakistan government decided to practically abolish the border between Pakistan & Afghanistan with free movement of labour, capital & general population. Many Afghans have Pakistani passports and as well as Afghani passports.

 

Currently there are more Pashtuns living in Pakistan, than Afghanistan as they have spread all over Pakistan. Awami National Party (ANP) is now the third biggest political force in Pakistan’s commercial capital Karachi after Pakistan Peoples Party & MQM. This is due to the fact that Karachi’s politics have turned into an ethnic number game where Pashtuns vote for ANP, Muhajirs vote for MQM & Sindhis vote for PPP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As the moment of America’s withdrawal comes nearer the property prices in Peshawar have gone through the roof as Afghan officials & middle classes are moving their families to Pakistan. As Afghanistan is land locked, most of its foreign trade takes place thorough Gwadar in Baluchistan& Karachi in Sindh. Southern & Eastern Afghanistan is economically dependent on the trade route with Pakistan which brings the urban centres like Jalalabad & Kandahar in a constant contact with Peshawar & Quetta respectively. 

 

Pakistanhas been impacted radically by Afghanistan and for many Pakistanis who want to get back the peace & tolerance of pre 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the reality is becoming abundantly clear.

There is no going back. For better or worse, people of Southern & Eastern Afghanistan have practically merged their social & economic interest with Pakistan. Sooner the people of Pakistan& Afghanistan realize this and act according, sooner they will get back their economic might& social harmony.

 

1. Is It Possible To Resolve Conflict Between Pakistan & Afghanistan?

 

2. Dangerous Escalation In Afghanistan - Eight Americans & Six Canadians Killed In A Bloody Day For The Coalition Forces

 

3. U.S. to Pledge $40 Million for Afghanistan Elections

 

4. Is China Coming To Afghanistan?

 

 

 

India & Afghanistan - Pakistan's Security Interests In Afghanistan

By Sikander Hayat

 

 

Current crisis on the line of control in Kashmir could have been handled well by the Indian establishment but the fact that it did not morph into a full blown crisis augers well for the future prospects of peace but there is an open question of Afghanistan hanging over India & Pakistan relations. If India decides to have a footprint in Afghanistan than Pakistan will fight tooth and nail to keep the eastern & southern Afghanistan in its sphere of influence as it is vital for the security of Pakistan to have these areas in Pashtun hands. USA should have conceded this fact a long time ago and this Afghanistan war could have ended few years earlier rather than going on until now and ending with a potential humiliation for the Western alliance.

Pakistan has legitimate interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been trying to convey this message since the American invasion nearly 12 years ago. Pakistan & India need to reach a grand bargain in which following steps are taken:

1.      Indian occupied Kashmir stays with in India but as a fully autonomous state (this could be reached by enhancing article 370 of Indian constitution)

2.      Full trade liberalization between the two countries

3.      Demilitarizing Indian occupied Kashmir

4.      Liberalizing visa regime between the two countries

5.      Creating a soft border between Azad Kashmir & Indian Occupied Kashmir

6.      Indian removing its footprint from Eastern & Southern Afghanistan.

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Who Is Responsible For Algeria Hostage Crisis?

By Sikander Hayat

Algeria is battling a vicious attack on its oil & gas infrastructure from terrorists whose aims remain unknown. Many foreigners have been taken hostage which includes many western citizens. Given the history of Algeria’s militant past and two decade insurgency (which started when Islamic Front won the elections but was forced away from taking over the government) , it is not uncommon for the country to face terrorist attacks. But it is the first time that an oil & gas installation has been attacked and such a large number of foreign hostages have been taken hostage.

There could be three possible reasons for this and any other attacks that are country happening in Islamic Maghreb.

 

1.       The installation in question is near the border between Algeria & Libya which gives rise to the possibility that attackers, though thought to be mostly Algerian nationals, came from Libya. Gaffafi’s government was staunchly against militant Islam and by killing him; West has left a large vacuum & swath of ungoverned land in Sahara desert. It will take years for Libya to bring de -facto city states all over coastal Libya under control of the central government but until that time, these rebels will find refuge with their sympathizers within Libya.

 

 

2.       There is also the Mali factor. France with the help of Britain has launched an offensive in Northern Mali to save the whole country from falling in the hands of Islamist rebels who initially wanted independence for Tuareg areas but now are aiming to capture whole of Mali. That presented a very acute challenge for the West and especially for France which has a long colonial history with Mali. Given the fact that this attack started with days of French offensive could signal that attackers were trying to prove a point and making sure that West knows the price it may have pay to for thwarting an Islamist takeover in Mali.

3.       The fact that all pro west government are managing to hang on but all the anti west governments (apart from Egypt) are under attack by the so called Arab Spring has spread resentment all over the Muslim world and it is thought rightly or wrongly that most of these revolutions are manufactured revolutions to target any governments who are perceived to be anti western in their outlook. Regime change seems to be only happening where it is convenient.

 

It may not ever be possible for the outside world to know what triggered this attack as all those who took part in this attack will be killed and even if any of them are captured, it may not be convenient for the government of Algeria to give out all the details of reasons behind this attack.

 

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2. Is It Possible To Resolve Conflict Between Pakistan & Afghanistan?

3.Azad Kashmir - Is China Taking Extra Interest In Kashmir?

4.What Are the Chances of India Pakistan War? & What is the Future of Hindu Muslim relations in India?

 

 

Can Balochistan Governer Do The Job After Hazara Deaths Forced Raisani Off Stage?

By Sikander Hayat

 

This is an open question as he has not been a very effective figure in the past. Given the fact that governor rule will last just 60 days & than care taker interim government will take over to conduct the general elections, in essence Mr Zulfiqar Magsi has less than 60 days to make any impact.

I very much doubt that anything will happen in these 60 days as he is not in charge because of design but because of an accident which has left Quetta & whole of Pakistan in absolute shock.

The nationalist elements in the province who are presiding over a dying insurgency may want to take advantage of this situation but that is also very unlikely to succeed as government of Mr Raisani was not actually very competent any way and Frontier Constabulary was dealing with the insurgents directly without any oversight by Mr Raisani in most of the cases.

Whole of Balochistan is looking forward to the elections which will bring in the actual Baloch leadership into power. Mengals have the best chance of forming the government with the help of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN).

 

Related Posts:

 

1. Are Balochis Becoming A Minority In Balochistan?

 

2. Why Balochistan is Not East Pakistan?

 

3. Gwadar - Jewel Of Balochistan & Pakistan

 

4. Pakistan & The Provinces – The Question of Provincial Autonomy & Its Impact On Pakistan’s Future Prosperity