The Londoner

“A modest man,” Winston Churchill supposedly quipped about Clement Attlee , his successor as primeminister , “but then he has so much to be modest about.” We should say the same about economists, particularly their ability to forecast anything in a useful and timely manner. Those predicting an imminent American economic decline have usually been no exception. This time, though, they may be on to something. Prevailing arguments about when the era of U.S. dominance would end, and which country would supplant it, have been wildly and consistently wrong for half a century. In the 1950s, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was taken seriously when he told Western ambassadors “We will bury you.” Japan was supposedly going to be No. 1; now the question is whether the precipitous decline in its working-age population will generate a fiscal crisis. Today, his country no longer exists. In the 1980s, The Germans -- or Europeans more broadly -- were thought to be on the b...

The requisites for a U.S. secretary of state , along with intelligence and judgment, are a knowledge of foreign policy, an understanding of domestic politics, and, ideally, first-hand experience of what President Dwight D. Eisenhower called the “brutality and stupidity” of war. Senator John Kerry , who was tapped by President Barack Obama to succeed Hillary Clinton , checks off all those boxes. He has been an engaged diplomat, a successful politician with gravitas and a decorated combat veteran. Much of his 28-year Senate career has focused on national security. He was among the few young Americans of privilege who fought in Vietnam . Clinton , though unlike most modern-day secretaries of state, he understands how U.S. politics affects foreign policy on issues from the Middle East to China . Massachusetts Democrat has won six statewide races. He knows how Washington works. Like The 69- year-old “Senator Kerry was the most prominent choice of most people o...

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe triumphantly returned to power this week, five years after a humiliating resignation from office. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) , which ruled Japan for over half a century before losing the Lower House to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009, won a landslide victory that gives it a supermajority in the Japanese parliament. Yet the vote appears more to be a punishment for the failures of the DPJ than a reflection of deep support for the LDP. Given voter dissatisfaction with all of Japan's political parties, Abe and the LDP have a small window to convince the public that they have the answers to what ails Japan. Abe needs to hit the ground running. In particular, there are three things he should focus on: One: Economy, economy, economy Japan's voters are concerned most with the state of the economy and their personal finances. After two decades of economic stagnation , and a country that has sunk back...

Here's the question no one is asking as 2012 ends, especially given the effusive public support the Obama administration offered Israel in its recent conflict with Hamas in Gaza : Will 2013 be a year of confrontation between Washington and Jerusalem ? It's on no one's agenda for the New Year. But it could happen anyway. It's true that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process appears dead in the water. No matter how much Barack Obama might have wanted that prize, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rebuffed him at every turn. The president appears to have taken it on the chin, offering more than the usual support for Israel and in return getting kloom (as they say in Hebrew). Nothing at all. However, the operative word here is "appears." In foreign affairs what you see -- a show carefully scripted for political purposes -- often bears little relation to what you actually get. While the Obama administration has acceded ...

" ... Young guerrilla girl Kumsuni delivers letters to comrades, and one day is caught by the police. When the policemen demand the girl disclose information about the guerillas , she spits into the faces of her interrogators. As the policemen drag Kumsuni to her execution, the heroic girl cries out ' Long Live General Kim Il Sung! '" ...Pre-teen boy Ri Kwang-ch'un is a member of a secret anti-Japanese children's organization. Along with others, he helps the "Red Guard uncles". However, one day policemen apprehend the boy. When the "bastards" tortur...

The Imprisonment of Alan Gross and the U.S. Effort to Bring Him Home   The streets had darkened in Havana on December 3, 2009, as Alan Gross sat in his room at the Hotel Presidente, an elegant building located near the Cuban Foreign Ministry . It was 10 PM, and he had just gotten off the phone with his wife; they planned to have dinner together at their home in suburban Maryland the next day, when he was expected to return. Suddenly, Gross heard a loud knock at his door. Voices barked from the hallway, but Gross, who did not speak Spanish, did not understand. He opened the door and discovered four hulking security agents. Soon he was taken downstairs and forced into a compact car. He was under arrest.On the campaign trail in 2008 and during his first few months in office, President Barack Obama expressed his desire for a "new beginning with Cuba." Yet with Obama set to begin his second term, the relationship between the two countries remai...

Tim Scott meets with GOP base approval as Jim DeMint's successor The South Carolina Republican congressman's appointment to the Senate is less a win for diversity than for Tea Party orthodoxy Congressman Tim Scott, soon to be US Senator for South Carolina. Photograph: timscott.house.gov When South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley appoints Representative Tim Scott to the United States Senate to fill the vacancy made by the departing Jim DeMint, it will have been 32 years since another black Republican took a seat there. This seems like more of a cause for shame than celebration – and not just for the Republican party, but for Democrats, as well: only five other black men, and one black woman, have ever held office in the nation's upper chamber. At least the Democrats mostly elected theirs – Scott won't just be the third black Republican in the Senate from the American south, he will also be the third to get there withou...

World may be on the brink of seeing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) race If reports in Russian state media last Friday are accurate, the world may be on the brink of seeing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) race, though of a conventional type rather than the nuclear arms race of the Cold War. According to a report by RIA Novosti , Moscow may be developing a heavy-liquid-fuel, non-nuclear, precision-guided payload capability for a new class of ICBMs, which would give Russia near-global coverage similar to that sought by the U.S. under the controversial “Prompt Global Strike” program. Using rhetoric that harkened back to the dark days of the Cold War, Russian Strategic Missile Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Karakayev warned that Russia could develop its own strategic conventional ICBM force if the U.S. did not pull back from its efforts to create such a system, which gives the U.S. the ability to strike targets anywhere in the...

In his article “The Revolt of Islam in Syria” ( Jerusalem Post , December 12), Jonathan Spyer — senior fellow at the GLORIA Center — points out compelling information about the new Western-backed leadership in Syria. The bottom line: if this is Syria’s new government, then Syria now has an Islamist regime. This is happening with the knowledge and collaboration of the Obama administration and a number of European governments. It is a catastrophe, and one that’s taking place due to the deliberate decisions of President Barack Obama and other Western leaders. Even if one rationalizes the Islamist takeover in Egypt as due to internal events, this one is U.S.-made. As Spyer points out, U.S. and European policy can be summarized as follows: To align with and strengthen Muslim Brotherhood-associated elements, while painting Salafi forces as the sole real Islamist danger. At the same time, secular forces are ignored or brushed aside. The new regime, recognized by the Un...

Sen. John Kerry to succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State After the GOP embarrassed Susan Rice out of the running, ABC News reported  on Saturday that Obama will nominate Sen. John Kerry to succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. Kerry, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , brings with him a long record on foreign policy—and a little dirty laundry. Below is a collection of his statements and stances on recent foreign policy crises. Syria Before Syria’s Bashar al-Assad began killing thousands of civilians, Sen. Kerry counted himself among the foreign policy minds hoping that Assad would prove a reformer . To that end, he and Assad had multiple discussions that left Kerry feeling optimistic . In April 2010, he called Syria “an essential player in bringing peace and stability to the region.” In March 2011, he said , “President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had. … So my judgment is th...

In the course of making an argument about the coming collapse of China and Russia , Jackson Diehl made a rather forceful statement about Russia’s “deindustrialiation” under the malignant influence of Vladimir Putin.  I don’t want to get pulled into a larger discussion about the accuracy of Diehl’s thesis, needless to say I’m skeptical that both China and Russia will collapse in the near future, but I did want to focus in on his comment on the supposed death of industrial Russia (emphasis added): For Russia, the dilemma is summed up in the prices of oil and gas, and the role those two commodities have come to play during the Putin era. When Putin first took office in 1999, oil and gas earned less than half of Russia’s export revenue. Now that share is more than two-thirds. In part this increase is due to rising prices and production, but Russia has also deindustrialized under Putin . According to a report in Business New Europe, this year the country ...

The rich heritage of Tunisia, maybe the only place where the Arab Spring stands a chance JACOPO RIPANDA, “HANNIBAL CROSSING THE ALPS”/GIANNI DAGLI ORTI/THE ART ARCHIVE AT ART RESOURCE, NY Modern-day Tunisians, more Westernized than most Arabs, see themselves as descendants of the great Carthaginian general who invaded Italy. T he Arab Spring began in Sidi Bouzid, a small Tunisian town, at the end of 2010. In a desperate protest against the corrupt and oppressive government that had made it impossible for him to earn a living, food-cart vendor Mohamed Bouazizi stood before City Hall, doused himself with gasoline, and lit a match. His suicide seeded a revolutionary storm that swept the countryside and eventually arrived at the capital, Tunis, where it toppled dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. Just weeks later, Hosni Mubarak was thrown from his palace in Egypt. Muammar el-Qaddafi was lynched later that year in Libya. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad may be the ...

Is Scotland in Europe? The SNP doesn’t even know Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, is flying by the seat of his pants. Hardly a week goes by without another embarrassing U-turn on his claims about what independence will mean for Scotland. The SNP has had 80 years to plan for this. Yet it is increasingly clear that they are woefully underprepared for the referendum to be held in less than two years’ time. A diet of bluster is proving no substitute for the hard-headed argument needed to win over Scots’ hearts and minds. With each U-turn, Mr Salmond’s party creates a loss of confidence. No wonder the voices of dissent within its ranks are beginning to be heard. Whether it is on Scotland’s admission to the European Union, on what currency we would use, or the impact on energy supplies, the nationalists are all over the place. You might have hoped that the SNP would have thought out a credible positio...