The Scottish Nationalist Party is offering us a one-way ticket to a deeply uncertain future

Is Scotland in Europe? The SNP doesn’t even know

Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, is flying by the seat of his pants. Hardly a week goes by without another embarrassing U-turn on his claims about what independence will mean for Scotland. The SNP has had 80 years to plan for this. Yet it is increasingly clear that they are woefully underprepared for the referendum to be held in less than two years’ time.

A diet of bluster is proving no substitute for the hard-headed argument needed to win over Scots’ hearts and minds. With each U-turn, Mr Salmond’s party creates a loss of confidence. No wonder the voices of dissent within its ranks are beginning to be heard. Whether it is on Scotland’s admission to the European Union, on what currency we would use, or the impact on energy supplies, the nationalists are all over the place.

You might have hoped that the SNP would have thought out a credible position on Scotland’s membership of the EU. After all, it’s central to our economic prospects. Scottish businesses need to know where we would stand if Scotland were to break from the rest of the United Kingdom. Until a few weeks ago the nationalists, ever anxious to reassure a doubting populace, claimed that Scotland would automatically be a member of the EU upon independence.

What’s more, they said there was a legal opinion to back that up. They have since had to admit that there was never a legal opinion. And, in a major blow, José Barroso, the President of the European Commission, has said that Scotland will have to reapply for membership. As a result, in their most spectacular climbdown to date, the SNP has admitted that there would indeed have to be a negotiation.

Nobody knows what form these discussions would take, or how long they would last. I know, from experience, that matters will be complicated, because many of the 27 member states have their own agendas, especially on separation: Spain springs to mind. But be in no doubt, negotiation means that the euro, border control, and our rebate will be on the table. Who can foresee what demands might be made? What we do know, however, is that new member states have until now been asked to sign up for the euro. We also know that the EU does not like the British rebate and would be unlikely to acquiesce in its maintenance. The SNP, in the face of this, simply asserts that they will get in with no problems.

The nationalists are also in deep water with another newly acquired policy: what currency Scotland would use post-independence. Until last year, the SNP policy was to adopt the euro. At the beginning of 2012, that changed to using the pound. When it was pointed out that our interest rates would be fixed by a foreign bank – the Bank of England – Mr Salmond announced without consultation that there would be a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK. This would, of course, mean a loss of sovereignty.
As we see in the eurozone, currency union members sign up to a pact that severely curtails their ability to pursue a different policy on tax, spending and borrowing. That is not freedom. Many SNP supporters now realise this. Meanwhile, for the Scottish financial-services industry, who regulates them is crucial. Here SNP policy is again contradictory. The nationalists have said the Bank of England will regulate the industry. But if we are in the EU, they also admit, Scotland must have its own separate regulator.
The uncertainty over these matters may cost Scotland dear in jobs and investment. The SNP’s preference for simply asserting what will happen is being exposed. Just last week, when confronted with the fact that green energy is hugely dependent on a UK subsidy, they simply insisted that England would carry on paying it because it would want to buy Scotland’s energy. Again, no discussion. Simply more bluster.
The Scottish Nationalist Party is asking us to buy a one-way ticket to a deeply uncertain future. There are many unknowns in the world. To which of those is independence the answer? It is hard to credit how unprepared the nationalists are to answer the fundamental questions that will define Scotland’s future for generations to come.

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