Showing posts from January, 2018

Should Greece Leave The Euro? How Long Can The EU Survive Without German Backing?

By Sikander Hayat 

The problem with the Euro is that it treats a country like Greece as if it is the same as Germany in terms of its economy, politics, culture and other aspects of its social fabric. We know very well that this is not the case as countries and cultures acquire ways of doing things in their own way. Greece cannot be turned into Germany, Germany cannot be turned into Greece and yet the single currency euro tries to do just that. Since 2008, Greece's economy has gone down 25%, loosing millions of jobs, forcing citizens to emigrate, pension schemes to collapse, loss of sovereignty and directly leading to the rise of ultra right and ultra left wing political parties.

Germany is widely blamed by the Greek for their country's problems. People of Greece invoke second world war and occupation by Nazi Germany as an earlier example of German belligerence . Greeks argue that what Germans did militarily during the second world war, they are now doing to Greece with economic…

What I Have Learned From "The Black Swan - The Impact of The Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Book Review by Sikander Hayat 

As far as I have been able to decipher, this book is about the emergence of an event which 
is totally unforeseen, unpredictable and which cannot be modelled for by our usual 
forecasting models. Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a great book to read despite 
its length and tone which shows its anger against the current establishment in academia, 
industry and just about anyone in high places. Nassim has been a quant in his previous life, 

has practised financial forecasting methods in trying to choose the eventual winners and has
 tried to use his practitioner's knowledge to inject life into the idea of his Black Swan thesis. 
Although he has used forecasting models in his life as a trader, he is fully aware of the short 
comings of these models and in fact, he makes a strong case against modelling risk with the 
current tools at our disposal. These models are fine as far as life goes on without any 

extreme events but the moment an