US intelligence report sees shift of power to east

The world is shifting towards a multi-polar system with a less dominant US and a more powerful China and India, and a "historic" transfer of wealth from west to east, according to a new US intelligence report.

The Global Trends 2005 report, released by the director of national intelligence yesterday, says that while the US will remain the most powerful country in 2025, the rise of emerging powers and regional blocs will constrain its ability to "call the shots" across the world.

The National Intelligence Council analysis concluded the US would be ever more constricted by scientific advances in other countries, the expansion of irregular warfare by state and non-state actors, the proliferation of long-range precision weapons and the growing frequency of cyber warfare. "The multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."

The report said the international system prevailing since the second world war would be "unrecognisable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east, and the growing influence of non-state actors".

The NIC analysis warned such multi-polar systems have historically been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones. It added that while there were likely to be strategic rivalries over trade, investment, technological innovation and acquisition, it could not "rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries".

The report comes a week after the G20 leaders discussed the financial crisis, in a meeting seen as underscoring the growing importance of countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia.

It said the financial crisis had the capacity to accelerate many current global trends but concluded the world was not "headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system as occurred in 1914-18 when an earlier phase of globalisation came to a halt".