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End Game in Afghanistan? Implications for Pakistan In The Case Of American Withdrawal

By Sikander Hayat


United Status’s ambassador to Afghanistan has asked Mr Obama to not send any further troops into Afghanistan which is in stark contradiction to what Gen Stanley McChrystal asked for. According to UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper “His remarks will infuriate Gen Stanley McChrystal, the NATO commander in the country, who has asked for a further 40,000 US troops to add to the 68,000 already there.
It is also likely to frustrate politicians and military chiefs in the UK, who have repeatedly called for a decision on Gen McChrystal's request.
Over the weekend, the Chief of the Defense Staff Sir Jock Stirrup backed Gen McChrystal's surge strategy and criticized Washington for dragging its heels.
Last month, the
head of the British Army, General Sir David Richards, rejected alternative plans backed by Vice-president Joe Biden that NATO reduce troop numbers in Afghanistan and concentrate on counter-terrorist operations using Special Forces.
Gen Karl Eikenberry's intervention came in classified cables sent last week as Mr Obama continued high-level deliberations with his war cabinet over the refocusing of the Afghan war strategy. He is also believed to have participated in talks on Wednesday by video-link.”

This development shows a clear rift in the decision making institutions in the US government. It seems that people close to Mr Obama do not want to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan and
want to avoid a prolonged war. They want to concentrate on hunting down al-Qaida rather than state building in Afghanistan. In my view that will be the best decision as it will concentrate US efforts on the real reason they came to Afghanistan and stop itself from bogging down in another Vietnam like quagmire.
This war at the moment is being run in a very day to day fashion and needs to rekindle its real focus in the Afghan theatre. Implications for Pakistan are very real and contain both good and bad elements. If America leaves with some sort of Afghan army in place which can control the borders than it’s a good development and will stop the war in the tribal areas of Pakistan as well. If on the other hand America leaves without this arrangement then there will be chaos on both sides of the AfPak border. In that case to stabilize tribal areas inside Pakistan, Pakistan will have to support some players in Afghanistan and have no doubt about it that there cannot be a government in Afghanistan without the support of Pakistani Pakhtuns. So Obama administration will do well to take this basic fact into consideration while making any future decisions about Afghanistan.

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