America Will Start Leaving Afghanistan in June 2011 – Implications of Initial Surge & Eventual Withdrawal On Pakistan?
By Sikander Hayat
Finally President Obama has given the clearest signal yet that United States of America is losing its appetite for an unending conflict in Afghanistan. Obama has given a timeline for the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and for that withdrawal to happen, he has increased the number of troops in Afghanistan by another 30,000 to finish the job. This is a kind of final push by the American president who is worried by the state of economy at home and who knows that if economy is not fixed by the time next presidential elections are around in 2012, he will have no chance of getting elected again.
For that reason he wants to avoid a prolonged war and the best way to achieve the goal of a relatively short war is to put extra troops in the areas where Taliban are at their strongest. These are mostly southern & eastern provinces which include Helmand, Kandhar, Wardak, Paktia, Paktika, Farah etc. Fighting will be the fiercest in these areas, because Taliban had the chance to consolidate their gains in the last many years when
America was busy in Iraq and it will be a bloody year for both sides if US really wants to take control of these areas.
Another priority will be to hunt down key figures of al-Qaida so that victory can be declared as soon as people like Osama and Aiman Al Zawahiri are dead. In my view that will be the best decision as it will concentrate US efforts on the real reason they came to Afghanistan and stop itself from being bogged down in another Vietnam like quagmire.
Hopefully yesterday’s speech by Obama will concentrate efforts in Afghanistan as well as currently this war is being run in a very day to day fashion and needs to rekindle its real focus
in the Afghan theatre. Implications for Pakistan are very real and contain both good and bad elements. If America leaves with a strong Afghan army in place which can control the borders than it’s a good development and will stop the war in the tribal areas of Pakistan as well. If on the other hand America leaves without this arrangement then there will be chaos on both sides of the AfPak border.
In that case to stabilize tribal areas inside Pakistan, Pakistan will have to support some players in Afghanistan ( it may not be Taliban this time )and have no doubt about it that there cannot be a government in Afghanistan without the support of Pakistani Pakhtuns. So Obama administration will do well to take this basic fact into consideration while putting a government structure in Afghanistan and before leaving Afghanistan.
Finally President Obama has given the clearest signal yet that United States of America is losing its appetite for an unending conflict in Afghanistan. Obama has given a timeline for the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and for that withdrawal to happen, he has increased the number of troops in Afghanistan by another 30,000 to finish the job. This is a kind of final push by the American president who is worried by the state of economy at home and who knows that if economy is not fixed by the time next presidential elections are around in 2012, he will have no chance of getting elected again.
For that reason he wants to avoid a prolonged war and the best way to achieve the goal of a relatively short war is to put extra troops in the areas where Taliban are at their strongest. These are mostly southern & eastern provinces which include Helmand, Kandhar, Wardak, Paktia, Paktika, Farah etc. Fighting will be the fiercest in these areas, because Taliban had the chance to consolidate their gains in the last many years when
America was busy in Iraq and it will be a bloody year for both sides if US really wants to take control of these areas. Another priority will be to hunt down key figures of al-Qaida so that victory can be declared as soon as people like Osama and Aiman Al Zawahiri are dead. In my view that will be the best decision as it will concentrate US efforts on the real reason they came to Afghanistan and stop itself from being bogged down in another Vietnam like quagmire.
Hopefully yesterday’s speech by Obama will concentrate efforts in Afghanistan as well as currently this war is being run in a very day to day fashion and needs to rekindle its real focus
in the Afghan theatre. Implications for Pakistan are very real and contain both good and bad elements. If America leaves with a strong Afghan army in place which can control the borders than it’s a good development and will stop the war in the tribal areas of Pakistan as well. If on the other hand America leaves without this arrangement then there will be chaos on both sides of the AfPak border. In that case to stabilize tribal areas inside Pakistan, Pakistan will have to support some players in Afghanistan ( it may not be Taliban this time )and have no doubt about it that there cannot be a government in Afghanistan without the support of Pakistani Pakhtuns. So Obama administration will do well to take this basic fact into consideration while putting a government structure in Afghanistan and before leaving Afghanistan.
Mr Sikander Your analysis of the situation is incomplete. Implication on Pakistan of this strategy will be much deep. It will bring the Taliban to Baluchistan, forcing the Pakistan to fight America's battle and that also on its own soil. Fighting in south-west has further complications as there is on-going separatist insurgency. You have talked only of implication when America will leave, what about these long 18 month? During these 18 month, I suppose, Pakistan has to pay high price. Regards.
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