What next in Afghanistan?

By Sikander Hayat

It is very important that now when Osama is dead, USA leaves Afghanistan as soon as possible. After all, America attacked Kabul to capture Bin Laden and now when that task is done, is there an excuse to carry on? Pakistan would definitely like them to leave sooner rather than later to show the Pakhtun people of Pakistan and Afghanistan that invaders are gone and that there is no need to carry on fighting any longer.

Let's assume that America leaves Afghanistan today, there are number of things that will happen:

1. Karzai government will start to weaken immediately

2. Taliban will take control of the Pakhtun areas of Afghanistan

3. India will have to leave Afghanistan in a hurry which will stop it from funding and training terrorists operating inside Pakistan, especially in the Baluchistan province

4. Pakistanis will have to finish the Pakistani Taliban in a hurry

5. Iran, Russia and India will start supporting Tajiks, Uzbeks & other non pakhtun factions

6. Afghanistan will eventually split into two areas one dominated by the Pashtuns and the other by the non Pashtuns

I have described all the above things that are bound to happen if America leaves today so the question is that if all these things are going to happen than all the work done in Afghanistan in last 10 years will go to waste. Afghanistan will become what it was at the start of 1998, just before that Taliban took over. Many factions fighting among themselves and turning Afghanistan into a graveyard.

Pakistan's only issue with American presence in Afghanistan is the blank cheque given by the Americans to the Indians. India has established training & funding camps all along Pakistan Afghanistan border to helps terrorists in Pakistan to destabilize that country. Pakistan would either like America to leave so that they can deal with the Indians themselves or stopping them from conducting terrorists activities in Pakistan. America so far has not stopped India from any of these activities so in this scenario Pakistan wants America to go but if America was to allow Pakistan to deal with India on their own terms, Pakistan will not have objections to establishment of long term American bases in Afghanistan. May it is time that Americans & Pakistanis both rethink their strategy in Afghanistan for the sake of stability of region. 

What next in Afghanistan? | Books | The Guardian

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