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Pakistan and the business of hope

Matt Wade, Islamabad
January 26, 2008

ISRAR Shah is a political candidate with a powerful story.

He lost both legs above the knee when a bomb went off at a meeting of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) last July. The blast killed 20 people, injured 90 and left Dr Shah on life-support for five days.

Despite his injuries, Dr Shah, a veterinary doctor in his 50s, is contesting a seat in national parliament for the PPP in next month's elections.

He resumed campaigning the day he was released from hospital after two months of treatment following the blast and has been hard at it since.

On Wednesday, he was working a crowd at an Islamabad shopping mall. Like politicians everywhere, he shook hands with those passing by and chatted to shop owners while a young party worker handed out his pamphlets.

Dr Shah's wheelchair sets him apart from most election candidates around the world. But so does his security detail — Dr Shah and his party colleagues were guarded by a heavily armed commando dressed in black.

"I am campaigning with a Kalashnikov," he says. "That's because I am still receiving threats to my life."

Dr Shah's experience is a confronting reminder of what Pakistanis are going through.

Over the past three months, there have been at least 20 suicide bombings which have killed 400 people, many of them security personnel.

Dr Shah was on the podium with his party leader, Benazir Bhutto, not long before she was assassinated last month.

"I am still not accepting she has died," he says. "I feel she is still around us, her spirit is with us."

Even before Ms Bhutto's murder, Newsweek declared that "no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan". The Economist says the death "suggests no one is safe" in Pakistan. There has been speculation the country is on the brink of civil war and even disintegration.

However, Dr Shah's presence as an election candidate is also a reminder of Pakistan's resilience.

"The word disheartened is not in my vocabulary," says Dr Shah, who was imprisoned several times as a student activist during the regime of former military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq.

"I am lucky enough to be having a second life, so I will fight for Pakistan."

There is no doubt public confidence has been shaken by the gut-wrenching events of the past few months.

But while morale is low, it's not hard to find people who speak with great passion about their commitment to Pakistan and their hope for the future.

One of them is Rizwan Khan, 29, a college teacher from Islamabad. "We believe in Pakistan and we believe the day will come when we will be a stable nation," he says. "We are now making a sacrifice to save the world from the menace of terrorism."

Many Pakistanis are offended by predictions of the country's demise.

"It is wrong to paint Pakistan entirely in black," says Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the executive director of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency. As the head of a respected NGO promoting good governance and democratic institutions, Mr Mehboob is often highly critical of the regime headed by President Pervez Musharraf.

But he rejects the idea Pakistan is in a downward spiral. "Despite so many wrong and negative things taking place, the civil administration remains intact and competent; they are the ones that basically run the Government day to day," he says.

Mr Mehboob says that some government activities, especially taxation administration, have improved dramatically in recent years and points out that many Pakistani businesses are doing very well. "In many ways life has improved," Mr Mehboob says. "There are opportunities for people."

There is evidence to back this claim.

The Human Development Index, published annually by the UN Development Program, shows the wellbeing of Pakistan's people has improved steadily over the past decade. The index, which combines indicators on health, education and income, allows the wellbeing of a population to be compared over time. Pakistan's human development index ranking has risen from 0.497 in 1995 to 0.551 this year.

However, that's way below Australia's ranking of 0.962 (third in the world). Pakistan's ranking is below the average in South Asia, which includes India and Sri Lanka.

The Pakistan economy has been growing at a rate of about 7% for several years and the World Bank is forecasting expansion of 6.6% a year until 2010. Pakistan's national annual income per person is about $US800 ($A915) above the regional average of US$684, World Bank figures show.

Pakistan's robust growth rate has been fuelled by economic reforms introduced since 2000, especially in the financial sector.

For Mr Musharraf, the performance of the Pakistan economy is a political lifeline and pointing out the country's growth rate has become a mantra. "Pakistan has a population of 160 million, it has very strong armed forces, its economy is on an upsurge," he told the BBC yesterday.

There is a danger that the political turmoil will result in poor economic decision making. There are also legitimate concerns that Pakistan's rapid growth is passing by the country's poorest people, who live mostly in rural areas.

This week a UNICEF report said there had been no tangible improvement in Pakistan's child mortality rate over the past year, despite increased government spending on the health of mothers and infants.

Only Afghanistan and a handful of mostly African countries have a poorer record of child survival than Pakistan.

Pakistan's literacy rate — 47% — is behind South Asia's average by 13 percentage points. Only 75% of girls are enrolled in primary school. The economy also faces some big short-term challenges. The inflation rate is about 11% and the price of many food staples has risen sharply. Recently, there have been shortages of wheat and frequent power cuts because of high demand.

These problems are a blemish on the Government's economic record and could count against Mr Musharraf's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), in next month's election.

Even so, the number of families able to buy popular consumer goods such as motor bikes, cars, mobile phones and other electrical appliances has surged.

Many consumers now have access to gadgets once only available to those with relatively high incomes. It is now common for taxi drivers and housekeepers to have a mobile phone.

Hammad Asim, 29, from Rawalpindi, who started a design and printing company last year, is a beneficiary of Pakistan's strong growth.

His income has risen so sharply he has been able to refurbish his family's living room, buy a new lounge and purchase his family's first washing-machine. He has a new mobile phone and will trade in his motor bike for a small car next month.

He has cable TV and access to the internet from home.

"I am a self-made person and I'm very confident about my future," he says.

The Mall road in the heart of Pakistan's second biggest city, Lahore, is a symbol of how life goes on for most of Pakistan's 160 million people, despite political instability and the ever-present threat of violence.

A fortnight ago a suicide bomber killed 24 people, mostly policemen, on the Mall. But now the only evidence of the tragedy is a small cluster of flowers left in memory of the dead.

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