Who can broker a deal with the Taliban? When the time is right, a number of groups could help the west negotiate

Taliban Fighters

There are at least 12 channels of contacts with insurgent leaders inAfghanistan, involving states, organisations and freelancers. They have one thing in common: none have got far.

A diplomat in Afghanistan refers to them, somewhat dismissively, as the "peace industry" – toiling away mostly out of sight, producing little of substance. The hope is that when all sides consider the time ripe, the fragile strands will coalesce into something more durable.

The painstaking work of forging contacts with a fierce insurgency has been going on for almost as long as the war. What has changed recently is these talks have been gaining press coverage. That does not mean they are making more progress. It is more likely that it is now in the interest of some of the parties to advertise them. In Washington, the December strategy review is coming up, and it suits the US military and the Kabul government to demonstrate a political dividend for the military and civil investment made so far.

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