Skip to main content

Crisis looms in central Asia’s Great Game - By Ahmed Rashid


Sixteen years ago this month there was panic across central Asia. Having captured Kabul, the Taliban were moving northwards and some commanders were threatening to Talibanise the entire region. That prompted Russia and China to promise support to the ex-Soviet states across the region.
US Russia Great Game in Central Asia
A flurry of security officials from Nato, the US and the EU have been visiting the region trying to reassure the governments in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, and fragile Kyrgyzstan, over increased aid and security. US officials are also believed to be offering sales of unwanted heavy weapons from the Afghan theatre.
Indian Role In Afghanistan
But at the same time Russia and China are trying to wean those governments away from the US, with Vladimir Putin in particular making a determined effort to return central Asia to Russia’s backyard. In October Mr Putin signed a new 30-year treaty to secure a base in Tajikistan. A joint Russian-Tajik statement spoke of “the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan”. The 7,000 Russian troops based in Tajikistan might increase. A month earlier Mr Putin had signed a treaty with Kyrgyzstan extending an air base lease for 20 years.
Russia is also adamantly opposing US plans to maintain small military bases in Afghanistan post-2014 for special forces, drone missiles and trainers for the Afghan army.
US Russia Great Game in Central Asia
Post-September 11 the Taliban threat receded but today central Asians are once again panicking at the thought of US troops exiting Afghanistan. Added to the threat of a resurgent Taliban are domestic Islamist extremist groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), whose members have spent the past decade in Pakistan’s tribal regions and are now, armed and battle ready, re-entering central Asia through northern Afghanistan.


China has been offering greater security through the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation – a regional pact that is yet to really take off – as well as using its long term ally Pakistan to gain influence with the Taliban. India too has a growing presence, with a military base in Tajikistan and oil and mineral stakes in Kazakhstan.
This represents an intensification of the new Great Game that erupted in the region after the break-up of the Soviet Union.Indian Role In Afghanistan
Mr Putin’s aim is to ensure that the US is left with little presence in the region. At present Russia allows Nato supplies to travel through its territory to Afghanistan. The US has negotiated similar rights for its withdrawal from Afghanistan to reduce dependence on the southern route, which Pakistan closed earlier this year during a spat with the US. But Russia will make sure that these transit facilities end after 2014.
Indian Role In Afghanistan
So far only Uzbekistan has dissented from the Russian line. In July President Islam Karimov withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) of pro-Moscow states. He has also offered the Americans long-term facilities and is negotiating for US weapons supplies. But even if Mr Karimov – a ruthless dictator who has refused to carry out economic reforms – can resist Russian pressure for long, he is hardly an ideal ally for the west.
Indian Role In Afghanistan
In the meantime Nato forces in northern Afghanistan are doing their best to eliminate the central Asian Islamic militant groups. The IMU in particular has proved to be a long-term threat and is now closely tied to al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. Counting only a few hundred Uzbek and Tajik fighters in the late 1990s, the group now has thousands of militants drawn from all central Asian states as well as China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Chechnya.
Indian Role In Afghanistan
Yet for all the anxiety in Moscow and Washington about the shifting balance of power in Afghanistan, it does not represent the greatest threat to central Asia. What could really undermine the ex-Soviet states is the increasing pauperisation of their people, the collapse of services such as health and education, and the excesses of dictators and failure of governments – except for Kyrgyzstan’s – to carry out any political, social or economic reforms. Unfortunately as the new Great Game continues, both Russia and the US are ignoring the social and economic crisis that is about to erupt in central Asia. That crisis will not be because of Afghanistan.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Pakistan Army Must Not Intervene In The Current Crisis - Who To Blame For the Present Crisis in Pakistan ?

By Sikander Hayat Another day of agony and despair as Pakistanis live through a period of uncertainty but still I believe that army must not intervene in this crisis. These are the kind of circumstances when army need to show their resolve of not meddling in the political sphere of the country. No doubt that there will be people in the corridors of power and beyond who will be urging the army to step in and ‘save’ the country but let me tell you that country will only be saved if army stays away and let the politicians decide the future of the country, even if it means that there will be clashes on the streets of Islamabad. With free media in place, people are watching with open eyes the parts being played by each and every individual in this current saga. They know who is right and who is wrong and they will eventually decide who stays in power when the next general election comes. Who said that democracy was and orderly and pretty business ; it is anything but. Democracy ...

Mir Chakar Khan Rind - A Warrior Hero Of Baluchistan & Punjab Provinces of Pakistan

By Sikander Hayat The areas comprising the state of Pakistan have a rich history and are steeped in the traditions of martial kind. Tribes which are the foundation stone of Pakistan come from all ethnic groups of Pakistan either they be Sindhi, Balochi, Pathan or Punjabi. One of these men of war & honour were Mir Chakar Khan Rind. He is probably the most famous leader coming out of Baloch ethnic group of Pakistan. Mir Chakar Khan Rind or Chakar-i-Azam (1468 – 1565 ) was a Baloch king and ruler of Satghara in (Southern Pakistani Punjab) in the 15th century. He is considered a folk hero of the Baloch people and an important figure in the Baloch epic Hani and Sheh Mureed. Mir Chakar lived in Sibi in the hills of Balochistan and became the head of Rind tribe at the age of 18 after the death of his father Mir Shahak Khan. Mir Chakar's kingdom was short lived because of a civil war between the Lashari and Rind tribes of Balochistan. Mir Chakar and Mir Gwaharam Khan Lashari, hea...

Azad Kashmir - Is China Taking Extra Interest In Kashmir?

By Sikander Hayat All the pictures are from Azad Kashmir First let’s talk about the geography & political structure of Azad Kashmir. The Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir, usually shortened to Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) or, simply, Azad Kashmir, is the southernmost political entity of Pakistan. It covers an area of 13,297 km² (5,134 mi²), with its capital at Muzaffarabad , and has an estimated population of about four million. The state's financial matters, i.e., budget and tax affairs, are dealt with by the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Council, instead of by Pakistan's Central Board of Revenue. The Azad Jammu and Kashmir Council is a supreme body consisting of 11 members, six from the government of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and five from the government of Pakistan. Its chairman/chief executive is the president of Pakistan. Other members of the council are Azad Kashmir's own president and prime minister and a few other AJK ministers. Azad Jammu and Kashmir has its ...