The Londoner

Steep U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan brings substantial risks The Obama administration appears determined to vacate Afghanistan as fast as possible. If the latest leaks are to be believed, officials are willing to leave as few as 6,000 U.S. troops behind after 2014 , concentrated at the Bagram air base and a few other installations around Kabul . The mind boggles at what this would mean in military terms. Consider one simple fact: Kandahar , the city where the Taliban movement started, is 310 miles southwest of Kabul . Imagine that intelligence analysts have identified a “high-value target” — say, a terrorist facilitator with links to both al-Qaeda and the Taliban — in Kandahar. How would the U.S. military capture or kill him without a secure base in Kandahar ? This scenario is, on some level, fanciful, because the lack of a U.S. presence on the ground around Kandahar would make it very difficult to generate useful intelligence. Ho

“A modest man,” Winston Churchill supposedly quipped about Clement Attlee , his successor as primeminister , “but then he has so much to be modest about.” We should say the same about economists, particularly their ability to forecast anything in a useful and timely manner. Those predicting an imminent American economic decline have usually been no exception. This time, though, they may be on to something. Prevailing arguments about when the era of U.S. dominance would end, and which country would supplant it, have been wildly and consistently wrong for half a century. In the 1950s, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev was taken seriously when he told Western ambassadors “We will bury you.” Japan was supposedly going to be No. 1; now the question is whether the precipitous decline in its working-age population will generate a fiscal crisis. Today, his country no longer exists. In the 1980s, The Germans -- or Europeans more broadly -- were thought to be on the b

The requisites for a U.S. secretary of state , along with intelligence and judgment, are a knowledge of foreign policy, an understanding of domestic politics, and, ideally, first-hand experience of what President Dwight D. Eisenhower called the “brutality and stupidity” of war. Senator John Kerry , who was tapped by President Barack Obama to succeed Hillary Clinton , checks off all those boxes. He has been an engaged diplomat, a successful politician with gravitas and a decorated combat veteran. Much of his 28-year Senate career has focused on national security. He was among the few young Americans of privilege who fought in Vietnam . Clinton , though unlike most modern-day secretaries of state, he understands how U.S. politics affects foreign policy on issues from the Middle East to China . Massachusetts Democrat has won six statewide races. He knows how Washington works. Like The 69- year-old “Senator Kerry was the most prominent choice of most people o

Here's the question no one is asking as 2012 ends, especially given the effusive public support the Obama administration offered Israel in its recent conflict with Hamas in Gaza : Will 2013 be a year of confrontation between Washington and Jerusalem ? It's on no one's agenda for the New Year. But it could happen anyway. It's true that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process appears dead in the water. No matter how much Barack Obama might have wanted that prize, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rebuffed him at every turn. The president appears to have taken it on the chin, offering more than the usual support for Israel and in return getting kloom (as they say in Hebrew). Nothing at all. However, the operative word here is "appears." In foreign affairs what you see -- a show carefully scripted for political purposes -- often bears little relation to what you actually get. While the Obama administration has acceded

" ... Young guerrilla girl Kumsuni delivers letters to comrades, and one day is caught by the police. When the policemen demand the girl disclose information about the guerillas , she spits into the faces of her interrogators. As the policemen drag Kumsuni to her execution, the heroic girl cries out ' Long Live General Kim Il Sung! '" ...Pre-teen boy Ri Kwang-ch'un is a member of a secret anti-Japanese children's organization. Along with others, he helps the "Red Guard uncles". However, one day policemen apprehend the boy. When the "bastards" tortur

What’s Behind the Russian Adoption Ban ? The Magnitsky Act , passed recently by the United States Senate , may have been of little interest to Americans , but its impact and aftermath in Russia has been tempestuous. The act, put very briefly, bars Russians who are implicated in human-rights abuses from entering the United States, and freezes their American bank accounts. Its adoption was accompanied by furious and threatening statements from Russian officials. This week, in a retaliatory move, the Duma, Russia’s lower house, voted almost unanimously for further constraints on non-government organizations that have even the faintest connection to America. Another amendment in the same package introduced a flat ban on the adoption of Russian children by parents in the United States. Read more here. HOME

Feeling the Pain in Tehran As sanctions bite, some of Iran's leaders a re signaling a willingness to come back to the negotiating table. Iran'sMinistry of Intelligence did something remarkable last month: It used its website to publish a report (link in Farsi) calling for direct talks with the country's foe, the United States . In the report, entitled " The ZionistRegime's Reasons and Obstacles for Attacking Iran ," the traditionally hawkish ministry highlighted the benefits of diplomacy and negotiations with the UnitedStates : "One way to fend off a possible war is to resort to diplomacy and to use all international capacities." The authors took care to draw a line between the approaches currently taken towards Iran's nuclear program by the U.S. and Israel, Iran's archenemy. President Obama, the report's authors wrote, "hopes to solve this issue peacefully and through diplomacy" -- in contrast to Israel, whi

Unlike in democracies , where politicians vying for office first introduce themselves to their constituents, China's leaders take a rather different approach. Only after the Chinese Communist Party has chosen its top leader in secret does he begin the process of "introducing" himself to the people. The newly enthroned general secretary Xi Jinping has been busy firing corrupt officials, visiting factories and military leaders, boarding a battleship to dine with sailors. And in the process he has been defining his mission, which he calls "the great revival of the Chinese nation ". To the world outside the goal of national revival looks more like an irredentist mission that challenges the resolve of its neighbours. Read the full story here. HOME

The Imprisonment of Alan Gross and the U.S. Effort to Bring Him Home   The streets had darkened in Havana on December 3, 2009, as Alan Gross sat in his room at the Hotel Presidente, an elegant building located near the Cuban Foreign Ministry . It was 10 PM, and he had just gotten off the phone with his wife; they planned to have dinner together at their home in suburban Maryland the next day, when he was expected to return. Suddenly, Gross heard a loud knock at his door. Voices barked from the hallway, but Gross, who did not speak Spanish, did not understand. He opened the door and discovered four hulking security agents. Soon he was taken downstairs and forced into a compact car. He was under arrest.On the campaign trail in 2008 and during his first few months in office, President Barack Obama expressed his desire for a "new beginning with Cuba." Yet with Obama set to begin his second term, the relationship between the two countries remai

A united Europe is not in America 's interest As Britain drifts away from the EU , like a man quietly sidling towards the exit during an embarrassingly disastrous play, the US has begun to express concern. The Telegraph reports: The Obama administration has expressed concern at what US officials see as Britain's slide towards the European exit door. Washington firmly believes that the departure of its strongest partner in Europe would also reduce American influence on the continent , as Britain so often shares American views. "It is important to state very clearly that a strong UK in a strong Europe is in America's national interest ," said a senior US administration official. "We recognise national states but see the EU as a force multiplier." Britain's free trade philosophy is regarded as vital in preventing the union from drifting towards protectionism, while since World War Two, successive British governments have be

The Benghazi Report: How smoothly Washington washes away its scandals You'll be able to hear and read today about the State Department report on the Benghazi consulate sacking and killings. But no matter how much you listen or read, you'll only be getting part of the story. Here's why: The report from the Accountability Review Board, headed by Thomas Picketing and Admiral Mike Mullen, is only one tiny piece of a vast bureaucratic ballet that has evolved in Washington over decades to handle hot issues, even deadly ones like Benghazi, with minimal damage to the politicians and bureaucrats in power at the time. It's an amazingly sophisticated and bipartisan procedure that looks sound to naive eyes. It's built upon powerful self-interest and savvy strategic communications that manages and manipulates information and the timing of its release to minimize damage to incumbents and to dampen ongoing media interest in pursuing an emba

World may be on the brink of seeing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) race If reports in Russian state media last Friday are accurate, the world may be on the brink of seeing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) race, though of a conventional type rather than the nuclear arms race of the Cold War. According to a report by RIA Novosti , Moscow may be developing a heavy-liquid-fuel, non-nuclear, precision-guided payload capability for a new class of ICBMs, which would give Russia near-global coverage similar to that sought by the U.S. under the controversial “Prompt Global Strike” program. Using rhetoric that harkened back to the dark days of the Cold War, Russian Strategic Missile Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Karakayev warned that Russia could develop its own strategic conventional ICBM force if the U.S. did not pull back from its efforts to create such a system, which gives the U.S. the ability to strike targets anywhere in the

In his article “The Revolt of Islam in Syria” ( Jerusalem Post , December 12), Jonathan Spyer — senior fellow at the GLORIA Center — points out compelling information about the new Western-backed leadership in Syria. The bottom line: if this is Syria’s new government, then Syria now has an Islamist regime. This is happening with the knowledge and collaboration of the Obama administration and a number of European governments. It is a catastrophe, and one that’s taking place due to the deliberate decisions of President Barack Obama and other Western leaders. Even if one rationalizes the Islamist takeover in Egypt as due to internal events, this one is U.S.-made. As Spyer points out, U.S. and European policy can be summarized as follows: To align with and strengthen Muslim Brotherhood-associated elements, while painting Salafi forces as the sole real Islamist danger. At the same time, secular forces are ignored or brushed aside. The new regime, recognized by the Un

Sen. John Kerry to succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State After the GOP embarrassed Susan Rice out of the running, ABC News reported  on Saturday that Obama will nominate Sen. John Kerry to succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. Kerry, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee , brings with him a long record on foreign policy—and a little dirty laundry. Below is a collection of his statements and stances on recent foreign policy crises. Syria Before Syria’s Bashar al-Assad began killing thousands of civilians, Sen. Kerry counted himself among the foreign policy minds hoping that Assad would prove a reformer . To that end, he and Assad had multiple discussions that left Kerry feeling optimistic . In April 2010, he called Syria “an essential player in bringing peace and stability to the region.” In March 2011, he said , “President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had. … So my judgment is that S

In the course of making an argument about the coming collapse of China and Russia , Jackson Diehl made a rather forceful statement about Russia’s “deindustrialiation” under the malignant influence of Vladimir Putin.  I don’t want to get pulled into a larger discussion about the accuracy of Diehl’s thesis, needless to say I’m skeptical that both China and Russia will collapse in the near future, but I did want to focus in on his comment on the supposed death of industrial Russia (emphasis added): For Russia, the dilemma is summed up in the prices of oil and gas, and the role those two commodities have come to play during the Putin era. When Putin first took office in 1999, oil and gas earned less than half of Russia’s export revenue. Now that share is more than two-thirds. In part this increase is due to rising prices and production, but Russia has also deindustrialized under Putin . According to a report in Business New Europe, this year the country gave

The rich heritage of Tunisia, maybe the only place where the Arab Spring stands a chance JACOPO RIPANDA, “HANNIBAL CROSSING THE ALPS”/GIANNI DAGLI ORTI/THE ART ARCHIVE AT ART RESOURCE, NY Modern-day Tunisians, more Westernized than most Arabs, see themselves as descendants of the great Carthaginian general who invaded Italy. T he Arab Spring began in Sidi Bouzid, a small Tunisian town, at the end of 2010. In a desperate protest against the corrupt and oppressive government that had made it impossible for him to earn a living, food-cart vendor Mohamed Bouazizi stood before City Hall, doused himself with gasoline, and lit a match. His suicide seeded a revolutionary storm that swept the countryside and eventually arrived at the capital, Tunis, where it toppled dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. Just weeks later, Hosni Mubarak was thrown from his palace in Egypt. Muammar el-Qaddafi was lynched later that year in Libya. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad may be the