The Londoner

Book Review by Sikander Hayat  As far as I have been able to decipher, this book is about the emergence of an event which  is  totally unforeseen, unpredictable and which cannot be modelled for by our usual  forecasting models . Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a great book to read despite  its length and tone which shows its anger against the current establishment in academia,  industry and just about anyone in high places. Nassim has been a quant in his previous life,  has practised financial forecasting methods in trying to choose the eventual winners and has  tried to use his practitioner's knowledge to inject life into the idea of his Black Swan thesis.  Although he has used forecasting models in his life as a trader, he is fully aware of the short  comings of these models and in fact, he makes a strong case against modelling risk with the  current tools at our disposal. These models are fine as far as life

By Sikander Hayat  People of Britain made a calculation that getting out of EU would be a painful task in economic terms but in the long run it will be a good for the social cohesion of the country. Brexit is an attempt by the people of United Kingdom to save themselves from the impacts of globalisation . World is overpopulated and Africa is fast becoming the epicentre of overpopulation with populations doubling in twenty years in some countries. India is not far behind in overpopulation and it has been  estimated that it will overtake China in next few years. India is presented as a shining example by some economists and is shown as a counterweight to China in the greater South East Asian region but in terms of controlling population, educating it and pulling masses out of poverty, China has done remarkably better than India . In fact, China does not export its people to other parts of the world like India does . Population increases are linked to lack of educa

By Sikander Hayat  Trumptax cuts may help big corporation but these won’t help lower and middle class Americans . One positive outcome could be that largecompanies which are hoarding money outside United States will hopefully declare their profits in US and will start paying their due share of corporate tax which has now come down to 20%. Google,Amazon, Starbucks e.t.c. do not pay their fair share of tax anywherein the world. They make a lot of money around the world but concoct atax evasion system which is barely legal and yet does not come out very well against any moral code. Apple has a sweatheart dea l with Republic of Ireland where Apple pretends to pay tax and Irishgovernment pretends to collect tax . Irish tax rate is probably lowest among the OECD member states and is sucking a lot of good money from hard working people around the world. Compared to United Kingdom, UStax rate was really high but it is now at the same level at 20%. Some of th

By Sikander Hayat  It is fascinating to understand the creation of money out of thin air by the central banks and governments across the world. How a fiat currency gains credence and what is it backed by is a very interesting subject. How piece of paper or some digits on computer screen can be called money and can be exchanged for physical goods is fascinating to observe. Off course value of such a currency is only valid as long as people trust it. Is there a future for current paper currencies or these are going to be replaced by digital ones. With the meteoric rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies , it is a matter of time before central banks will have to come up with a mechanism to integrate these into fabric of current currency universe and find a way to regulate them. I assume that the currently cryptocurrencies derive their value from the use by money launderers and criminal element of our societies as it is possibly the best way to make their black